Latest! Top Ten Trends in Distributed Photovoltaic

In 2025, two major policies were implemented successively, bringing earth-shaking changes to distributed photovoltaic power generation. Among them, the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" (hereinafter referred to as the Management Measures) directly pointed out the pain points of distributed photovoltaic development, construction and management, while the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid-connected Electricity Prices and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy" officially opened the curtain for the full entry of distributed photovoltaic power generation into the market.

Affected by the above new policies, what new changes and trends will distributed photovoltaic power generation usher in?

01 Rush to install

Under the influence of the new management policies and the new electricity price policies, there are two important time nodes for the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation. That is, "430" rush to access the grid in full and "531" rush to buy electricity prices. With the superposition of the two, a new round of rush to install will appear in the first half of 2025.

It is worth noting that after the rush to install, due to the different time of the introduction of mechanism electricity prices and mechanism electricity in various regions, and the profit model of incremental projects under the electricity price mechanism will be recalculated, the distributed photovoltaic power generation in the second half of the year may have a short window period and stagnation period, and the scale of new installed capacity for the whole year may still be similar to that of last year.

02 Price increase

Since February, there have been reports of PV module price increases of 2-3 cents/W, and the rush to install has further stimulated the motivation of enterprises to increase prices. It is understood that the current module prices of some first-tier enterprises are 0.71-0.78 yuan/W. At present, many companies have signed self-discipline conventions. Affected by this, the company's operating rate is under certain control, resulting in a shortage of some models of modules after the previous inventory sales. It is expected that as the rush to install approaches, the subsequent module prices will still have room for increase, or return to the 0.8X yuan/W era.

However, after the rush to install, whether the subsequent module prices will continue to rise still needs to consider overseas demand, enterprise production capacity control and other situations.

03 Household photovoltaics may be suspended

According to the new management policy, household photovoltaics are divided into natural person households and non-natural person households. Combined with the latest policy, after June 1, the grid-connected electricity of incremental projects (including household photovoltaic projects) will participate in market-based transactions, which will be difficult for self-invested owners, and the power station installation demand of such users may be reduced.

The management method emphasizes that "distributed photovoltaic power generation projects invested, developed and constructed by non-natural persons shall not be registered in the name of natural persons". For non-natural person projects to participate in market-oriented transactions, it also tests the company's ability to study trading rules and calculate trading electricity prices.

On the other hand, industry sources said that Guangebao will stop the electricity fee transfer business from March 1. This move has a great impact on platform operators. In the past, such projects used "Guangebao" to deduct and settle electricity fees, and the capital party would share the electricity fee income with farmers. After the electricity fee transfer business was stopped, the platform operator could not settle electricity fees in batches and could only choose manual transfer, which would undoubtedly increase costs.

04 Rapid development of small and micro industries and commerce

Under the new situation, small industrial and commercial projects, that is, projects with a scale of 200KW-2MW, may become the mainstream. Such enterprises have certain electricity demand, and some high-energy-consuming enterprises will also face zero-carbon and low-carbon requirements, which have the motivation to install photovoltaics. Its investment model will also change from the previous "installation capacity determined by roof scale" to "installation capacity determined by actual consumption".

05 Distributed development fees will drop significantly

In the past, the income of distributed photovoltaic projects was power generation * fixed grid-connected electricity price, and areas that did not carry out distributed photovoltaic market transactions were guaranteed quantity and price. After the release of Document No. 136, the quantity and price of photovoltaic projects changed, and the investment income model will be recalculated. Affected by this, there is uncertainty in the investment income of enterprises, the cycle is extended, and the pressure on capital recovery increases. Reducing excessive additional costs such as intermediary fees will help them reduce their own risks.

It is understood that the intermediary fees of photovoltaic salesmen used to reach 200-400 yuan/board, and such fees have dropped significantly. On the other hand, photovoltaic installation costs are also falling. It is understood that many brands have recently reduced project installation costs, and the installation fee of 1,000 yuan/block by an installer in Jiangsu has dropped by about 40%.

06 The model of delivering power stations in X years is popular again

Under the changing situation, industrial and commercial distributed will also usher in more innovative models, among which the three-and-a-half-year delivery power station model and the X-year delivery power station model may be popular again. The essence of this model is to exchange electricity fees for power stations.

Taking the 3.5-year power station replacement model as an example, the owner pays the electricity fee according to the agreed discounted electricity price (the discounted electricity price is lower than the enterprise electricity price) during the contract period. The power station will be given to the owner at the end of the contract, and all the profits belong to the owner.

The advantage of this model is that the owner has 0 investment, that is, no capital, no guarantee, and no credit.

The pain point lies in the quality of photovoltaic equipment and subsequent operation and maintenance. To avoid the proliferation of inferior products, users need to carefully identify when choosing.

07 Distributed storage from passive to active

Although Document No. 136 clearly states that the configuration of energy storage shall not be used as a prerequisite for the approval, grid connection, and access to the Internet of new energy projects. However, due to the volatility and intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, it often faces low electricity prices during the period of photovoltaic power generation. The energy storage system can balance the supply and demand of electricity and smooth the income of the power station. Therefore, distributed photovoltaic storage will become the active choice of the owner.

08 Obvious regional characteristics

According to Document No. 136, for new energy incremental projects put into operation from June 1, 2025, the annual additional electricity volume included in the mechanism will be determined by local governments based on the completion of the annual non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight issued by the state and the user's tolerance.

In the future, the development of distributed photovoltaics will be carried out around the load. For areas where high-energy-consuming enterprises are concentrated and electricity demand is high, the development of distributed photovoltaics will be more motivated.

09 Development companies must have power trading capabilities

As photovoltaic power generation returns to its power attributes, photovoltaic development companies also need to grow into generalists. If they do not have the ability to help customers trade electricity, they will lose many opportunities or even be eliminated. Registering for power sales licenses and training power traders will help enhance the competitiveness of companies.

10 Intelligent means become essential skills

Photovoltaic power generation participates in market-oriented transactions, requiring accurate predictions of power generation and electricity prices. In addition, after the cancellation of fixed electricity prices, power station owners will pay more attention to refined management and professional operations to improve system operation efficiency and power generation revenue. All of these are inseparable from the support of intelligent means such as AI.